The widespread fear of a possible
outbreak is a tough blow to the Nepalese economy, which seemed on the verge of
a minor revival following the 2015 earthquake and subsequent Indian blockade.
Nepal is beginning to face the
most abrupt and widespread cessation of economic activity due to widespread
fear of a possible outbreak of this deadly respiratory pathogen that is capable
of community transmission.
Service industries such as
tourism and hotels are particularly hard hit. Tourism was expected to boost
Nepal's economic development and contribute to tourism to the high growth
target of 8.5 percent set by the government for this year, but the industry has
little financial cushion. According to the report prepared by the World Tourism
and Tourism Council, the tourism sector's contribution to Nepal's economy was
7.9 percent in 2018, representing the private tourism industry and counting
more than 200 company members.
It is a tourist season, but
hotels have very little space in major tourist centers like Pokhara, Thamel,
Bandipur, and Chitwan. For Nepal, India is the largest source of tourism
industry after China and the United States.
Nepal's manufacturing industries
are mostly dependent on raw materials from China. The knock-on effects are
important for Nepal as the supply of raw materials from China is greatly
reduced. The Central Bank of Nepal, the Central Bank of Nepal in its Mid-Term
Review 2019-20 monetary policy, stated that this year the spread of coronavirus
along with low paddy production will have a bad effect on our economy.
People are worried because we
still do not know much about this deadly virus and how deep and widespread the
economic decline will be. It is still difficult to predict. It will be some
time before we can estimate the full economic shock from this virus. Historical
experience suggests that exemption from such output losses is possible, but it
takes time. Nepal is also experiencing an unprecedented production decline in
its intensity and exemption from such losses is possible, but not by any
guarantee.
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